Monday, January 07, 2008

New Hampshire - Not a Knock Out Either Way

Okay, since I did so well with the Iowa Caucus predictions - Not! - I'll try again with New Hampshire:

Dems:

1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards
4. Richardson

Republicans:

1. McCain
2. Romney
3. Giuliani
4. Huckabee
5. Thompson

Although, I think there is a strong chance that Mitt Romney might take it over McCain tomorrow. McCain has a history with New Hampshire from the races against Bush that give him an advantage. The Republican base does not like McCain. However, Independents like him, are strong in NH, and can vote in the primaries. Normally, that helps McCain big time. But.....and this is the big variable.....Obama is generating so much excitement this week that the Independents might catch his fever and all rush over to vote in the Dem primary, leaving the base to pick Mitt. I'm hoping.

Either way, it won't be a knock out punch on either side of the aisle.

Hillary will be shaken, but not knocked out. She has a nationwide organization and money left.

Mitt will have two 2nd place finishes. He has deep pockets and no where else to go.

Giuliani is waiting for the big states to pile up the delegates.

None of them is leaving before Super Tuesday, February 5th.

Thompson, McCain, or Richardson may well be leaving after South Carolina, Nevada, or Michigan when they run out of money.

That's my take.

And yes, I'm still rooting for Mitt Romney.

And yes, as a long-time Clinton conspiracy afficianado, I am deeply enjoying Hillary Clinton's humiliating meltdown. After what she did to Billy Dale in the White House Travel Office, she deeply deserves it.