President Bush's Spinning Plates

The way I see it, President Bush's remaining term and legacy depend on the final outcome of several spinning plates:

- Vote on the Iraqi Constitution on October 15th. The vote is a major milestone in the War in Iraq and the measurement of success there.
- Confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Harriet Miers
- The independent council investigation of "Plamegate"
- Indictment of Congressman Tom Delay
- FEC investigation of Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist
- a possible "Katrina commission"


The best case scenario, which allows Bush to regain some ground in the polls and go on to enact policy with some authority is:

- Iraq has a successful vote and approves a constitution
- Harriett Miers has a positive showing in the confirmation hearings and is confirmed by Thanksgiving
- Prosecutor Fitzgerald ends his investigation with a report that no crime was committed and Rove and company are off the hook
- Tom Delay's indictment is dismissed
- Bill Frist is cleared of wrongdoing
- no Katrina Commission. Instead, Bush takes lead in rebuilding New Orleans

The worst case scenario, which will doom Bush to early lame duck status is:

- Iraq votes down the constitution and descends into Civil War
- Miers nomination is defeated or withdrawn
- Fitzgerald indicts Karl Rove or Scooter Libby in "Plamegate"
- Tom Delay goes to trial. Conviction being worse.
- Bill Frist gets forced into resignation
- a partisan Katrina Commission shoots at the Administration's handling of the emergency for months.

There's a lot at stake for the President in the next few months, and the rest of his term hangs in the balance.