I haven't posted in a while. So, in the spirit of catching up, here are some pre-election tidbits:
1. The 2006 midterm election is actually over for me. I voted today, since I will be out of the country on election day. Absentee ballot for me. Yes, I had to hold my nose in a couple of races to pick a candidate - but vote I did. I voted close to a straight party ticket, being the partisan that I am!, but I did vote for one candidate from the opposite party. It was for a county level position and the incumbent candidate is more than competent and runs a great office and deserves to keep going.
2. I think the Republican base will turn out as usual. I know that there is a lot of handringing going on about that in media and pundit circles. Yes, Republicans are disappointed with a lot of the failings of the Republicans to act like conservatives. But, they're still the best choice and the base likes to vote. We'll be there. I already was there.
3. The stem cell amendment in Missouri is interesting to keep tabs on. Not because of the Rush Limbaugh/Michael J. Fox spat. That's an irrelevant sideshow. No, the issue is the amendment and what are the implications of it's passing. I'll have to write a separate post on that.
4. What surprises are in store for us in the last 8 days of the races? Any October surprises left? Who knows. But for us political junkies it's crunch time. Better than the World Series!
Monday, October 30, 2006
Monday, October 16, 2006
Upbeat on GOP Prospects
Color me salmon. Swimming upstream.
Aparently, there are only three people in the U.S.A right now who believe that the Republicans are going to retain both the U.S. House and the U.S. Senate in the November elections: me and George Bush and Karl Rove.
Everyone else, at least everyone in the media, is predicting a certain Democratic win in the House and a possible/probable change in the Senate as well. I just don't think it's going to happen. A few reasons off the top of my head.
1. George Bush is not on the ballot. Sure, there are a lot of bush-haters out there. Let me repeat, George Bush is not on the ballot. If bush hatred is driving you, just stay home. There are just as many people who are scared to death of a Nancy Pelosi speakership as there are of those who hate Bush.
2. I don't think anything dramatic has changed since 2004, when Republicans did well. Nothing that would tip an election, except possibly hurrican Katrina - but I think that plays negatively both ways at the local level where candidates are running. I wouldn't want to be a local politician in Lousiana or Mississippi running for office.
3. The power of incumbency is still strong. Office holders mostly retain office.
4. Iraq - while an issue in a lot of voters minds - will not tip the election. There are pros and cons for both parties there. It won't tip any single local election for congressman, senator, etc. Even in Connecticut.
5. Low gas prices help the Repbulicans and take the edge off the angry Democrats. The economy is generally in good shape, making it a neutral.
As a bonus:
6. I think the Mark Foley scandal will burn out before the elections and be a non-player. If the Democrats want to overplay their hand on a morals issue, bring it on.
Bottom line: Incumbency wins out and the Republicans hold both the House and the Senate.
November 8th I'll tell you "I told you so".
Aparently, there are only three people in the U.S.A right now who believe that the Republicans are going to retain both the U.S. House and the U.S. Senate in the November elections: me and George Bush and Karl Rove.
Everyone else, at least everyone in the media, is predicting a certain Democratic win in the House and a possible/probable change in the Senate as well. I just don't think it's going to happen. A few reasons off the top of my head.
1. George Bush is not on the ballot. Sure, there are a lot of bush-haters out there. Let me repeat, George Bush is not on the ballot. If bush hatred is driving you, just stay home. There are just as many people who are scared to death of a Nancy Pelosi speakership as there are of those who hate Bush.
2. I don't think anything dramatic has changed since 2004, when Republicans did well. Nothing that would tip an election, except possibly hurrican Katrina - but I think that plays negatively both ways at the local level where candidates are running. I wouldn't want to be a local politician in Lousiana or Mississippi running for office.
3. The power of incumbency is still strong. Office holders mostly retain office.
4. Iraq - while an issue in a lot of voters minds - will not tip the election. There are pros and cons for both parties there. It won't tip any single local election for congressman, senator, etc. Even in Connecticut.
5. Low gas prices help the Repbulicans and take the edge off the angry Democrats. The economy is generally in good shape, making it a neutral.
As a bonus:
6. I think the Mark Foley scandal will burn out before the elections and be a non-player. If the Democrats want to overplay their hand on a morals issue, bring it on.
Bottom line: Incumbency wins out and the Republicans hold both the House and the Senate.
November 8th I'll tell you "I told you so".
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