Upbeat on GOP Prospects

Color me salmon. Swimming upstream.

Aparently, there are only three people in the U.S.A right now who believe that the Republicans are going to retain both the U.S. House and the U.S. Senate in the November elections: me and George Bush and Karl Rove.

Everyone else, at least everyone in the media, is predicting a certain Democratic win in the House and a possible/probable change in the Senate as well. I just don't think it's going to happen. A few reasons off the top of my head.

1. George Bush is not on the ballot. Sure, there are a lot of bush-haters out there. Let me repeat, George Bush is not on the ballot. If bush hatred is driving you, just stay home. There are just as many people who are scared to death of a Nancy Pelosi speakership as there are of those who hate Bush.

2. I don't think anything dramatic has changed since 2004, when Republicans did well. Nothing that would tip an election, except possibly hurrican Katrina - but I think that plays negatively both ways at the local level where candidates are running. I wouldn't want to be a local politician in Lousiana or Mississippi running for office.

3. The power of incumbency is still strong. Office holders mostly retain office.

4. Iraq - while an issue in a lot of voters minds - will not tip the election. There are pros and cons for both parties there. It won't tip any single local election for congressman, senator, etc. Even in Connecticut.

5. Low gas prices help the Repbulicans and take the edge off the angry Democrats. The economy is generally in good shape, making it a neutral.

As a bonus:

6. I think the Mark Foley scandal will burn out before the elections and be a non-player. If the Democrats want to overplay their hand on a morals issue, bring it on.

Bottom line: Incumbency wins out and the Republicans hold both the House and the Senate.

November 8th I'll tell you "I told you so".