It's now 12:07 in New Hampshire. The spry folks of Dicksville Notch, by tradition, apparently line up to vote at midnight to be the 1st to vote in a primary in an election year. Quaint. Really.
If I had to choose between admiring people who line up at midnight to see the 1st showing of a new "Star Wars" film, or who line up at midnight to vote, I'm going with the patriots. I approach voting with the same sort of awe and giddiness, so I applaud the Notchers. Even if they are probably lining up to vote for Democrats.
I should probably care about the New Hampshire primary. That's where the geopolitical center of the known universe is at this precise moment.
And the Democratic primary is where the excitement is. Given that W. is the slam dunk candidate for the Republicans, that primary is a snorefest. But that's okay. I'm just waiting. Biding my time. Waiting for the big show.Go ahead Democrats, cue up anyone of the field. President Bush is waiting in the General Election, and barring some calamity, he's taking home the prize.
My predictions for New Hampshire:
Kerry
Dean
Leiberman
Edwards
Clark
Kuchich
Sharpton
Last thought: John Stewart's "Daily Show" interview with Howard Dean on Comedy Central tonight was awesome! Stewart is outrageously funny. Also subversive. Yes. Left-wing. Yes. Wrong on most issues. Yes. But Laugh-Out-Loud funny every single night. I salute you.
Monday, January 26, 2004
Saturday, January 10, 2004
"Stop and Awe"
Sometimes a new story comes out of the blue and interrupts the normal debate on the big issues of the day. For example, the War in Iraq. Day after day of opponents criticizing the strategies and policies. Day after day of defenders defending. Mostly the same arguments day after day.
And then this story about Chief Warrant Officer Aaron Weaver of the 82nd Airborne. A familiar story: a Black Hawk helicopter crashes in Iraq. Taken down by a missle. Unfortunately not unusual.
But the story of Aaron Weaver is. The story can be stated simply. CWO Weaver survived the Somalia firefight at Mogadishu, survived cancer, and without having to was deployed to Iraq where he died in this nondescript chopper crash.
Wow. This is the story of a quiet hero on a plane above most. He clearly risked more than his share as a citizen in the service of our country. In our service. And it cost him the ultimate sacrifice.
Whatever your politics on the war, you have to stop and be awed by the bravery and sacrifice of an American hero, Chief Warrant Officer Aaron Weaver. God rest his soul.
And then this story about Chief Warrant Officer Aaron Weaver of the 82nd Airborne. A familiar story: a Black Hawk helicopter crashes in Iraq. Taken down by a missle. Unfortunately not unusual.
But the story of Aaron Weaver is. The story can be stated simply. CWO Weaver survived the Somalia firefight at Mogadishu, survived cancer, and without having to was deployed to Iraq where he died in this nondescript chopper crash.
Wow. This is the story of a quiet hero on a plane above most. He clearly risked more than his share as a citizen in the service of our country. In our service. And it cost him the ultimate sacrifice.
Whatever your politics on the war, you have to stop and be awed by the bravery and sacrifice of an American hero, Chief Warrant Officer Aaron Weaver. God rest his soul.
My "Conspiracy Theory" Theory
As I was surfing news stories about the War on Terrorism I saw an article on the Oklahoma City Bombing of '95. The gist of the story was that Terry Nichols, convicted partner of Terry McVeigh, was alleging for an upcoming trial that there were other conspirators in the bombing. If you've read internet coverage of the bombing you know that some conspiracy theories on the OKC bombing allege Iraqi sponsorship and involvement. You know that reporter Jayna Davis has identified "John Doe #2", who's sketch was put out on the police wire with McVeigh's, as an Iraqi former Republican Guard member living in the U.S.
The story got me thinking about the simplicity of Conspiracy Theories (CT's). Bear with me on this and I'll get back to the news story in question.
I imagine most people think of CT's as wholly complex, crazy, unmanageable things that take enormous energy to keep up with. And that's true. It usually takes me a while to click off the details of any of my favorite CT's like Oswald as lone gunman, or the death of Vince Foster, or Bill Clinton selling nuclear technology to the Chinese for campaign cash. Lots of detail: dates, dots to connect, conspirators to name, forensic evidence. Really tiring to the non-player. I see a lot of glazed looks and eyes rolling back into their numbed heads.
So where does simplicity come in? I was thinking abut Occam's Razor. Which, if I fuzzily remember my logics education, loosely states that the simplest answer to a logic puzzle is likely to be the right one.
So I apply that to the great conspiracies and test the theories.
For example, take the JFK headshot on the Zapruder film. It sure looks to me like the head snaps back and left to me. The simplest answer to me is that the shot came from the front right, hence conspiracy as Oswald was not there. The lone gunman theory supporters go to a lot of lengths to explain that, despite what you would normally think, it is possible for a head struck by a bullet from the back to snap back and not in the direction of the bullet path. I personally don't think it's possible from a physics standpoint, momentum and all, but that's me. So I'll choose the simpler logical answer. Shot from front left. Conspiracy.
Another example, Vince Foster. I won't go rehash all of the arguments, just this. The official version is that Foster left the White House, drove to Ft. Marcy Park, walked into the park and sat down, and shot himself to death. However, you have to torture the forensic evidence to make this version work. For example, no dirt on his shoes. Also, carpet fibers all over his body. Also, the death gun. It's a old pistol, made from parts of 2 guns, with 2 serial numbers, not immediately identified by the widow as owned by Foster. It looks like a drop gun, and it is. The simplest answer to the forensic evidence in total, as laid out in Christopher Ruddy's excellent books on the topics, is that Foster was murdered somewhere else and dropped in the park. Hence, conspiracy.
OK, back to the news story. My related conspiracy theory regarding terrorism is this:
Iraq and terrorist groups have a grudge against the U.S. related to the '91 Gulf War. They want to hurt us as revenge. They can't do it with an army projected across the ocean to defeat us. They can, and do, fund and carry out terrorist activities in the U.S. to execute that revenge.
Sadaam clearly had motive to send agents to the U.S. to engage in terrorist activities. Same for Osama bin Laden, who hated the U.S. for despoiling the holy land of Saudi Arabia with troop presence.
So since 1991 I've suspected terrorist links to acts that weren't labelled as such. Including the World Trade Center bombing in '93, Oklahoma City in '95, and the downing of TWA Flight 800. Add in the Antrhax letter attacks.
Post 9/11 I've advocated reviewing those and other incidents to determine if we have in effect been under attack since the Gulf War, with ever increasing effectiveness.
So you can view all of those incidents as separate calamaties with separate causes and separate groups and all kinds of complicated reasons why for each. Or you can apply Occam's Razor and conclude that we in the U.S. have been the subject of one purposeful revenge plot for 13 years. Coordinated and state sponsored. Hence, Conspiracy.
Simple, really.
The story got me thinking about the simplicity of Conspiracy Theories (CT's). Bear with me on this and I'll get back to the news story in question.
I imagine most people think of CT's as wholly complex, crazy, unmanageable things that take enormous energy to keep up with. And that's true. It usually takes me a while to click off the details of any of my favorite CT's like Oswald as lone gunman, or the death of Vince Foster, or Bill Clinton selling nuclear technology to the Chinese for campaign cash. Lots of detail: dates, dots to connect, conspirators to name, forensic evidence. Really tiring to the non-player. I see a lot of glazed looks and eyes rolling back into their numbed heads.
So where does simplicity come in? I was thinking abut Occam's Razor. Which, if I fuzzily remember my logics education, loosely states that the simplest answer to a logic puzzle is likely to be the right one.
So I apply that to the great conspiracies and test the theories.
For example, take the JFK headshot on the Zapruder film. It sure looks to me like the head snaps back and left to me. The simplest answer to me is that the shot came from the front right, hence conspiracy as Oswald was not there. The lone gunman theory supporters go to a lot of lengths to explain that, despite what you would normally think, it is possible for a head struck by a bullet from the back to snap back and not in the direction of the bullet path. I personally don't think it's possible from a physics standpoint, momentum and all, but that's me. So I'll choose the simpler logical answer. Shot from front left. Conspiracy.
Another example, Vince Foster. I won't go rehash all of the arguments, just this. The official version is that Foster left the White House, drove to Ft. Marcy Park, walked into the park and sat down, and shot himself to death. However, you have to torture the forensic evidence to make this version work. For example, no dirt on his shoes. Also, carpet fibers all over his body. Also, the death gun. It's a old pistol, made from parts of 2 guns, with 2 serial numbers, not immediately identified by the widow as owned by Foster. It looks like a drop gun, and it is. The simplest answer to the forensic evidence in total, as laid out in Christopher Ruddy's excellent books on the topics, is that Foster was murdered somewhere else and dropped in the park. Hence, conspiracy.
OK, back to the news story. My related conspiracy theory regarding terrorism is this:
Iraq and terrorist groups have a grudge against the U.S. related to the '91 Gulf War. They want to hurt us as revenge. They can't do it with an army projected across the ocean to defeat us. They can, and do, fund and carry out terrorist activities in the U.S. to execute that revenge.
Sadaam clearly had motive to send agents to the U.S. to engage in terrorist activities. Same for Osama bin Laden, who hated the U.S. for despoiling the holy land of Saudi Arabia with troop presence.
So since 1991 I've suspected terrorist links to acts that weren't labelled as such. Including the World Trade Center bombing in '93, Oklahoma City in '95, and the downing of TWA Flight 800. Add in the Antrhax letter attacks.
Post 9/11 I've advocated reviewing those and other incidents to determine if we have in effect been under attack since the Gulf War, with ever increasing effectiveness.
So you can view all of those incidents as separate calamaties with separate causes and separate groups and all kinds of complicated reasons why for each. Or you can apply Occam's Razor and conclude that we in the U.S. have been the subject of one purposeful revenge plot for 13 years. Coordinated and state sponsored. Hence, Conspiracy.
Simple, really.
Sunday, January 04, 2004
Quiet New Year
Not much going on in the world of politics to catch my attention over the holiday season. The most noteworthy item continues to be averted terrorist attacks, which we'll never know more than cursory information about.
So, instead of opining about things which I have no passion for I'll simply be a referral service today. I'll refer you, partisan reader, to my choice for best opinion column in the past 6 months. It's a column by one of my favorite columnists, Dennis Prager, entitled Iran clarifies the Middle East.
It's not my favorite because of the topic. The Mideast is important, but doesn't get me riled up one way or another. It's just a really well done column that takes a news story and adds some very profound analysis. Top notch thinking as usual from Mr. Prager. Take some time and take a look.
I'll be back to opining myself later in the week.
So, instead of opining about things which I have no passion for I'll simply be a referral service today. I'll refer you, partisan reader, to my choice for best opinion column in the past 6 months. It's a column by one of my favorite columnists, Dennis Prager, entitled Iran clarifies the Middle East.
It's not my favorite because of the topic. The Mideast is important, but doesn't get me riled up one way or another. It's just a really well done column that takes a news story and adds some very profound analysis. Top notch thinking as usual from Mr. Prager. Take some time and take a look.
I'll be back to opining myself later in the week.
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