As I was surfing news stories about the War on Terrorism I saw an article on the Oklahoma City Bombing of '95. The gist of the story was that Terry Nichols, convicted partner of Terry McVeigh, was alleging for an upcoming trial that there were other conspirators in the bombing. If you've read internet coverage of the bombing you know that some conspiracy theories on the OKC bombing allege Iraqi sponsorship and involvement. You know that reporter Jayna Davis has identified "John Doe #2", who's sketch was put out on the police wire with McVeigh's, as an Iraqi former Republican Guard member living in the U.S.
The story got me thinking about the simplicity of Conspiracy Theories (CT's). Bear with me on this and I'll get back to the news story in question.
I imagine most people think of CT's as wholly complex, crazy, unmanageable things that take enormous energy to keep up with. And that's true. It usually takes me a while to click off the details of any of my favorite CT's like Oswald as lone gunman, or the death of Vince Foster, or Bill Clinton selling nuclear technology to the Chinese for campaign cash. Lots of detail: dates, dots to connect, conspirators to name, forensic evidence. Really tiring to the non-player. I see a lot of glazed looks and eyes rolling back into their numbed heads.
So where does simplicity come in? I was thinking abut Occam's Razor. Which, if I fuzzily remember my logics education, loosely states that the simplest answer to a logic puzzle is likely to be the right one.
So I apply that to the great conspiracies and test the theories.
For example, take the JFK headshot on the Zapruder film. It sure looks to me like the head snaps back and left to me. The simplest answer to me is that the shot came from the front right, hence conspiracy as Oswald was not there. The lone gunman theory supporters go to a lot of lengths to explain that, despite what you would normally think, it is possible for a head struck by a bullet from the back to snap back and not in the direction of the bullet path. I personally don't think it's possible from a physics standpoint, momentum and all, but that's me. So I'll choose the simpler logical answer. Shot from front left. Conspiracy.
Another example, Vince Foster. I won't go rehash all of the arguments, just this. The official version is that Foster left the White House, drove to Ft. Marcy Park, walked into the park and sat down, and shot himself to death. However, you have to torture the forensic evidence to make this version work. For example, no dirt on his shoes. Also, carpet fibers all over his body. Also, the death gun. It's a old pistol, made from parts of 2 guns, with 2 serial numbers, not immediately identified by the widow as owned by Foster. It looks like a drop gun, and it is. The simplest answer to the forensic evidence in total, as laid out in Christopher Ruddy's excellent books on the topics, is that Foster was murdered somewhere else and dropped in the park. Hence, conspiracy.
OK, back to the news story. My related conspiracy theory regarding terrorism is this:
Iraq and terrorist groups have a grudge against the U.S. related to the '91 Gulf War. They want to hurt us as revenge. They can't do it with an army projected across the ocean to defeat us. They can, and do, fund and carry out terrorist activities in the U.S. to execute that revenge.
Sadaam clearly had motive to send agents to the U.S. to engage in terrorist activities. Same for Osama bin Laden, who hated the U.S. for despoiling the holy land of Saudi Arabia with troop presence.
So since 1991 I've suspected terrorist links to acts that weren't labelled as such. Including the World Trade Center bombing in '93, Oklahoma City in '95, and the downing of TWA Flight 800. Add in the Antrhax letter attacks.
Post 9/11 I've advocated reviewing those and other incidents to determine if we have in effect been under attack since the Gulf War, with ever increasing effectiveness.
So you can view all of those incidents as separate calamaties with separate causes and separate groups and all kinds of complicated reasons why for each. Or you can apply Occam's Razor and conclude that we in the U.S. have been the subject of one purposeful revenge plot for 13 years. Coordinated and state sponsored. Hence, Conspiracy.
Simple, really.
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